Unlawful Non-State Actor Roles Will Likely Influence US Decision Making Processes In Key Countries
Executive Summary:
Due to their strategic locations, military importance, vast natural resources, and counter-terrorism initiatives, it is likely that Niger, Djibouti, South Africa, Angola, Nigeria, and Ethiopia are the countries of key interest to the US within Sub-Saharan Africa. While on average non-state actors (NSAs) play little to no role within these key countries, South Africa greatly skews the data in favor of government sanctioned roles, thus demonstrating an important extra-government role within the rest of these nations. Therefore it is likely that unlawful NSAs will have the majority of influence in these key countries and subsequently they will influence the interests and decision making processes of the US in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Discussion:
Tuareg Spheres of Influence
Niger has recently become of increasing value to the US due to the need to ensure the safe use and export of the country’s vast uranium reserves.1 By properly overseeing the uranium mining, the US is ensuring that this resource does not lead to the proliferation of nuclear weapons by unlawful NSAs, as well as states. Furthermore, by mining the uranium, the Tuareg ethnic group, which has a presence in Niger, Mali, Algeria, and Libya, believes that the rural lands are incurring damage.2 Due to this and other reasons, the Tuareg’s have resumed attacks against the Nigerien military in the country's northern regions. The actions of this group will likely come into conflict with the goals of the US, which will affect the role and responsibilities that the US has in Niger. Additionally, the US has vital counter-terrorism interests within Niger, which stem from the desire to stop and control the broadening of the Salafist violence from neighboring Algeria.3 Due to these factors and the likely fact that Niger will experience a moderate increase in extra-government role potentials over the next five years, it is likely that a US presence and interest in Niger will continue into the future.
Unlike Niger, Djibouti has been a country of US concern since the 1980s and has been of increasing military importance since 2002, when the US deployed troops, intelligence personnel, and special forces to the country.4 In May 2003, the Djiboutian government granted the US the right to establish Camp Lemonier, a site with approximately 1,800 US personnel that are on an open-ended deployment to the country.5 Furthermore, the US has assisted in training the Djiboutian military forces, thus making the government economically dependent upon the US. The country's strategic location is yet an additional reason why Djibouti is of importance to the US. With terrorist cells in nearby Somalia and the Middle East, the US views this country as being crucial in the fight against terrorism. While Djibouti is likely to experience a stagnant role in unlawful NSA activity in the future, it is likely that unlawful NSAs from the surrounding areas will continue to influence the US interests in Djibouti.
While relations between the US and South Africa have at times been strained, the level of interaction between these two nations has been on the increase over the past few years. South Africa, one of the most democratic and influential countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, has collaborated with the US on issues pertaining to development and counter-terrorism throughout the region.6 With South Africa containing a significant influence of government sanctioned NSA roles, it is unlikely that unlawful NSA roles will influence the US in South Africa; however, it is likely that the US and South Africa will work together to try to root out unlawful NSA activity, specifically terrorism, in Sub-Saharan Africa. Additionally, due to South Africa's significant ease of conducting business and the economic opportunities for natural resources extraction, South Africa will continue to be of interest to the US in the future.
An Angolan Offshore Oil Rig
Within Sub-Saharan Africa, Angola is a country that is of increasing concern to the US primarily due to its substantial oil reserves. The country is the largest supplier of oil to China and ranks sixth in terms of supplying it to the US.7 With concerns about maritime security to the coastal oil reserves, the US is likely to assist in bringing back the Angolan navy in an effort to secure its stakes on these oil reserves.8 Moreover, additional economic opportunities exist through trading and the numerous US businesses that have a presence in the country, making it the second largest location for US investment in Africa.9 While extra-government NSAs play a minimal role within the country, it does not appear that the US is focused on unlawful NSA activity in Angola, but instead finds the country key to serving its economic interests.
Furthermore, Nigeria is of important interest to the US due to its location as a transit point for drugs (heroin and cocaine) to North America, its vast natural resources, and its counter-terrorism initiatives. Currently, extra-government NSAs play a minimal role within the country. Despite the minimal role of unlawful NSAs, the US, in an effort to combat the drug trafficking activities of criminal organizations throughout the country, has assisted in training law enforcement personnel, as well as providing millions of dollars to the government.10 However, Nigeria is also important to the US for other reasons, including its role as being a top supplier of oil to the US. In 2006, Nigeria exported approximately 1.1 million barrels of oil to the US.11 However, economic interests are not the only things at stake here. Within the past year, armed rebel groups have damaged oil pipelines and pumping stations, as well as kidnapped over 150 foreign oil workers.12 If these activities continue, unlawful NSA roles will justify more of a US interest in the country. Additionally, Nigeria plays an important role in the counter-terrorism initiatives of the US, with the government supporting US efforts against al Qaeda and the Taliban.13 Within the future, Nigeria will continue to be a key country to the US to ensure that its oil needs are met, as well as to guarantee safety to the more than 25,000 Americans living and working in the country.14
Ethiopia, the final key country to the US, is of major importance because of its close proximity to Somalia and the Sudan, where terrorism and unlawful NSAs are prevalent. Ethiopia has pledged to be an ally of the US in its campaign against Islamic Fundamentalism and the US is utilizing Ethiopia to combat terrorism throughout the Horn of Africa.15 Within the next five years, it is likely that the role extra-government NSAs play within Ethiopia will increase to a moderate role. This in, in conjunction with the conflict in the immediate area demonstrates how unlawful NSAs will continue to influence US activities and presence within Ethiopia.
Analytic Confidence: 8 Source Reliability: 9
For questions or comments, please contact the author:
Unlawful Non-State Actor Roles Will Likely Influence US Decision Making Processes In Key Countries
Executive Summary:
Due to their strategic locations, military importance, vast natural resources, and counter-terrorism initiatives, it is likely that Niger, Djibouti, South Africa, Angola, Nigeria, and Ethiopia are the countries of key interest to the US within Sub-Saharan Africa. While on average non-state actors (NSAs) play little to no role within these key countries, South Africa greatly skews the data in favor of government sanctioned roles, thus demonstrating an important extra-government role within the rest of these nations. Therefore it is likely that unlawful NSAs will have the majority of influence in these key countries and subsequently they will influence the interests and decision making processes of the US in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Discussion:
Niger has recently become of increasing value to the US due to the need to ensure the safe use and export of the country’s vast uranium reserves.1 By properly overseeing the uranium mining, the US is ensuring that this resource does not lead to the proliferation of nuclear weapons by unlawful NSAs, as well as states. Furthermore, by mining the uranium, the Tuareg ethnic group, which has a presence in Niger, Mali, Algeria, and Libya, believes that the rural lands are incurring damage.2 Due to this and other reasons, the Tuareg’s have resumed attacks against the Nigerien military in the country's northern regions. The actions of this group will likely come into conflict with the goals of the US, which will affect the role and responsibilities that the US has in Niger. Additionally, the US has vital counter-terrorism interests within Niger, which stem from the desire to stop and control the broadening of the Salafist violence from neighboring Algeria.3 Due to these factors and the likely fact that Niger will experience a moderate increase in extra-government role potentials over the next five years, it is likely that a US presence and interest in Niger will continue into the future.
Unlike Niger, Djibouti has been a country of US concern since the 1980s and has been of increasing military importance since 2002, when the US deployed troops, intelligence personnel, and special forces to the country.4 In May 2003, the Djiboutian government granted the US the right to establish Camp Lemonier, a site with approximately 1,800 US personnel that are on an open-ended deployment to the country.5 Furthermore, the US has assisted in training the Djiboutian military forces, thus making the government economically dependent upon the US. The country's strategic location is yet an additional reason why Djibouti is of importance to the US. With terrorist cells in nearby Somalia and the Middle East, the US views this country as being crucial in the fight against terrorism. While Djibouti is likely to experience a stagnant role in unlawful NSA activity in the future, it is likely that unlawful NSAs from the surrounding areas will continue to influence the US interests in Djibouti.
While relations between the US and South Africa have at times been strained, the level of interaction between these two nations has been on the increase over the past few years. South Africa, one of the most democratic and influential countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, has collaborated with the US on issues pertaining to development and counter-terrorism throughout the region.6 With South Africa containing a significant influence of government sanctioned NSA roles, it is unlikely that unlawful NSA roles will influence the US in South Africa; however, it is likely that the US and South Africa will work together to try to root out unlawful NSA activity, specifically terrorism, in Sub-Saharan Africa. Additionally, due to South Africa's significant ease of conducting business and the economic opportunities for natural resources extraction, South Africa will continue to be of interest to the US in the future.
Within Sub-Saharan Africa, Angola is a country that is of increasing concern to the US primarily due to its substantial oil reserves. The country is the largest supplier of oil to China and ranks sixth in terms of supplying it to the US.7 With concerns about maritime security to the coastal oil reserves, the US is likely to assist in bringing back the Angolan navy in an effort to secure its stakes on these oil reserves.8 Moreover, additional economic opportunities exist through trading and the numerous US businesses that have a presence in the country, making it the second largest location for US investment in Africa.9 While extra-government NSAs play a minimal role within the country, it does not appear that the US is focused on unlawful NSA activity in Angola, but instead finds the country key to serving its economic interests.
Furthermore, Nigeria is of important interest to the US due to its location as a transit point for drugs (heroin and cocaine) to North America, its vast natural resources, and its counter-terrorism initiatives. Currently, extra-government NSAs play a minimal role within the country. Despite the minimal role of unlawful NSAs, the US, in an effort to combat the drug trafficking activities of criminal organizations throughout the country, has assisted in training law enforcement personnel, as well as providing millions of dollars to the government.10 However, Nigeria is also important to the US for other reasons, including its role as being a top supplier of oil to the US. In 2006, Nigeria exported approximately 1.1 million barrels of oil to the US.11 However, economic interests are not the only things at stake here. Within the past year, armed rebel groups have damaged oil pipelines and pumping stations, as well as kidnapped over 150 foreign oil workers.12 If these activities continue, unlawful NSA roles will justify more of a US interest in the country. Additionally, Nigeria plays an important role in the counter-terrorism initiatives of the US, with the government supporting US efforts against al Qaeda and the Taliban.13 Within the future, Nigeria will continue to be a key country to the US to ensure that its oil needs are met, as well as to guarantee safety to the more than 25,000 Americans living and working in the country.14
Ethiopia, the final key country to the US, is of major importance because of its close proximity to Somalia and the Sudan, where terrorism and unlawful NSAs are prevalent. Ethiopia has pledged to be an ally of the US in its campaign against Islamic Fundamentalism and the US is utilizing Ethiopia to combat terrorism throughout the Horn of Africa.15 Within the next five years, it is likely that the role extra-government NSAs play within Ethiopia will increase to a moderate role. This in, in conjunction with the conflict in the immediate area demonstrates how unlawful NSAs will continue to influence US activities and presence within Ethiopia.
Analytic Confidence: 8
Source Reliability: 9
For questions or comments, please contact the author:
Brittany Monteparte